USDA Crop Report Quick View (5/10)

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 SOYBEANS/SOYBEAN MEAL/SOYBEAN OIL

-From DOW JONES NEWSWIRE by Andrew Johnson Jr.

  • “The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated U.S. 2011-12 soybean ending
    stocks at 210 million bushels, down 40 million from its estimate in April. The
    USDA raised its export estimate by 25 million bushels and raised the crush by
    15 million.”
  • “The government lowered its estimate of 2011-12 world soybean ending stocks to
    53.2 million tons from 55.5 million in April. Brazil’s production was lowered
    by 1 million tons to 65 million, while Argentina was lowered by 2.5 million to
    42.5 million tons.”
  • “The USDA estimated U.S. 2012-13 soybean ending stocks at 145 million bushels,
    below the average analyst estimate of 170 million.”
  • “U.S. new crop end stocks of 145 million are supportive as it doesn’t leave a
    lot of wiggle room. Tighter beginning supplies for the 2012-13 crop year raise
    the need for a perfect growing season.”

 

 CORN

-From DOW JONES NEWSWIRE by Ian Berry

  • “The report projected 2011-12 ending stocks, or stockpiles left at the end of
    August, at 851 million bushels, up from an April estimate of 801 million
    bushels and shocking analysts who on average expected stockpiles of 758 million
    bushels. None of the 19 analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected
    an increase.”
  • “The USDA also projected 2012-13 ending stocks will balloon to 1.881 billion
    bushels, above the average analyst estimate of 1.704 billion.”
  • “The higher-than-expected estimates are due in large part to prospects for the
    2012 crop. The USDA said in its report that crop planting and emergence is
    early due to favorable weather. This means the harvest will start earlier than
    normal, and the USDA said end-users will have earlier access to 2012 supplies
    in August, before the end of the 2011-12 marketing year.”
  • “The USDA also projected a record crop, with a yield of 166 bushels per acre.”
  • “The report was a shock to traders because cash market prices have soared
    recently amid growing concern that some corn users may not be able to secure
    supplies this summer.

 

WHEAT

-From DOW JONES NEWSWIRE by Andrew Johnson Jr.

  • “Crop data issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture are seen as negative
    for wheat prices because they project U.S. supplies are not threatening.”
  • “The USDA projects all wheat production at 2.245 billion bushels, above the
    1.999 billion produced in 2011. All winter wheat production was pegged at 1.694
    billion bushels, above the average analyst estimate surveyed by Dow Jones at
    1.634 billion.”
  • “U.S. hard red winter wheat is estimated at 1.032 billion bushels, up from 780
    million in 2011, and soft red winter wheat production was pegged at 428
    million.”
  • “The USDA projects U.S. wheat inventories as of May 31 at 768 million bushels,
    down from last month’s forecast. Inventories should then decline to 735 million
    in the new crop year, which ends May 31, 2013, according to government
    forecasters.”
  • “Global ending stocks for the 2011-12 crop year are estimated at 197 million
    metric tons, below the 206.3 million tons estimated last month.”
  • “Meanwhile, weekly wheat export sales totaled 550,500 metric tons, including
    221,600 metric tons for the current marketing year and 328,900 metric tons for
    the year starting June 1, according to the USDA. The sales were within trader
    expectations that ranged from 400,000 to 800,000 metric tons.”

 

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Pre USDA Report Thoughts (5/10)

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

 

By: Ted Seifried, senior broker at Zaner Group.

Pre USDA Report Thoughts (written 5/09)

The trade is mostly looking for a bearish USDA monthly report tomorrow.  Grain markets reflect that as we have seen lower prices over the last week and a half.  However, the average trade guesses are looking for large changes compared to last months report and I wonder how willing the USDA will be to make any wide scale changes this month.  New crop supply is far from being determined and even acreage numbers will change dramatically from the USDA’s current estimates.  Keep in mind that the USDA is most likely going to stick to their March 30 Planting Projections acreage estimates until they issue their own final plantings numbers on June 29.  And, the USDA may choose to hold off for now on making any major changes to the old crop balance sheet as well for the sake of wanting to get a better handle on how far we will have to carry old crop supplies as an early harvest would take significant pressure off of old crop ending stocks.

So, if we do see an unchanged or a small change report tomorrow the likely knee jerk reaction will be that it is not as bearish as we have factored into the market and we could get a bullish reaction.  But again, this would be based on the idea that we have spent the last week and a half pushing prices down in anticipation of a bearish report.  However, it could be argued that good weather along with a record planting pace and a negative turn in outside markets were the real driving factors in the price decline and not the report.  Ultimately, it looks like the dollar is poised to strengthen and it seems that speculators have been moving out of commodities with crude oil trading below $100 a barrel and gold under $1600 an oz for the first time in a while.  Couple this with fast planting and good weather and it could be difficult to get a sustained rally at this time.

See December Corn Daily chart:

See November Soybean Daily chart:

This means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to make sure they lock up prices that makes sense for their bottom line.  Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent.

Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs.

Ted Seifried (321) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Call Ted Seifried at (312) 277-0113

or e-mail him at tseifried@zaner.com

How to open an account with Zaner Group.

Additional charts, studies, and commentary can be found at Markethead.com.

Subscribe FREE to Zaner Group’s Daily Research Newsletter.

View my thoughts on other markets at Ted Seifried Futures Trading Strategies blog.

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

 

 

 

 

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Planting Progress (4/18)

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

By: Ted Seifried, senior broker at Zaner Group.

Planting Progress (As of 4/17/12)

The USDA released the weekly Crop Progress report this afternoon (4/17) which came a day late due to an electrical fire at the USDA.  No Comment on that…  With ideal weather in most areas through the bulk of March and April Traders were looking for corn to be 18-22% planted at this point, compared to 5% last year.  The USDA is reporting corn plantings at 17% as compared to 7% last week, 5% last year and 5% 5-year average.  The biggest drag on planting was Texas reporting 54% planted vs 56% last year and 59% 5-year average.  Aside from slower then usual plantings in Texas we did see some states post impressive progress numbers.  Some standouts being: Illinois at 41%!?!, Indiana at 24%, Missouri at 39%, Kentucky at 59%, Ohio at 10% and Tennessee at 80%.

With the USDA reporting planting progress at a slightly slower pace of 17% compared to the trade expectation of 18-22% we could expect to get a slightly bullish reception to this report.  The trade expectations may have been a bit optimistic however.  Texas will get planted, and this report reflects the fact that conditions are nearly ideal.  The simple fact that Illinois is 41% planted compared to 6% 5-year average is pretty bearish long term. 

See December Corn Daily chart:

Wheat numbers were slightly bearish with the Winter Wheat crop condition improving to 64% good to excelent compared to 61% last week and 36% last year.  Spring wheat is now 37% planted compared to 21% last week, 5% last year, and 9% 5-year average.

See December Wheat chart:

This means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices while we have new crop corn in the $5.00 range and new crop wheat in the $6.50 range. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent.

Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs.

Be safe!

Ted Seifried (321) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Call Ted Seifried at (312) 277-0113

or e-mail him at tseifried@zaner.com

How to open an account with Zaner Group.

Additional charts, studies, and commentary can be found at Markethead.com.

Subscribe FREE to Zaner Group’s Daily Research Newsletter.

View my thoughts on other markets at Ted Seifried Futures Trading Strategies blog.

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

 

 

 

 

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In the wake of the 4/10 Monthly USDA Supply/Demand Report (4/11)

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

By: Ted Seifried, senior broker at Zaner Group.

In the wake of the 4/10 Monthly USDA Supply / Demand Report

The USDA produced a rather uneventful Monthly Supply/Demand report today, leaving corn ending stocks unchanged and lowering soybean ending stocks to just above the average trade guess.  However, the markets responded with a sharp sell-off.  This was partially due to an overall negative day for commodities.  But even with commodities under pressure when the grains opened the pit session, the first half of the trade day looked like we could be shrugging off the unchanged corn ending stocks and embracing the widely expected bullish soybean numbers.  Early on it seemed that the attitude of the trade was that even though the USDA left corn stocks unchanged, they certainly would have to lower their number in months to come.  Then the day truned.  I would suggest that there are a number of factors that have been growing behind the scenes of the bullish old crop corn and new crop soybean stories.

First off the IMF warned this morning that global exporters should be weary of lower prices in the next year due to slowing global demand.  This could be suggesting that our seemingly tight new crop soybean balance sheet could be less of a concern, and with this expectedly bullish report I ask what new bullish news will we see for soybeans in the near future?  Weather sure looks good and although some years that may suggest more corn planted, this year I think we have stretched that rubber band as far as it will go.

Secondly we saw a planting progress report from the USDA NASS yesterday evening showing corn planting at 7%, about a week and a half ahead of time.  But that’s only part of the story, some of that early planting progress is coming from very good ground.  Its not just that areas on the fringe of the corn belt are rolling forward faster then usual, but Illinois is 17% planted, Indiana 6% and Missouri is 23% planted.  So, looking at today’s board it would be a very valid question to ask – then why is old crop corn having a tougher day then new crop?  Because early planting generally means early harvest and we may not need to carry old crop supplies as far.  And the USDA leaving the ending stocks unchanged suggests that there is no more price rationing needed to control old crop supplies.  This weighed heavily on old crop corn today, and could continue to do so into the near future.

See Corn Daily chart:

This means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices while we have new crop corn in the $5.50 range.  Give me a call for some ideas.  In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance.  Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent.

Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs.

Be safe!

Ted Seifried (321) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Call Ted Seifried at (312) 277-0113

or e-mail him at tseifried@zaner.com

How to open an account with Zaner Group.

Additional charts, studies, and commentary can be found at Markethead.com.

Subscribe FREE to Zaner Group’s Daily Research Newsletter.

View my thoughts on other markets at Ted Seifried Futures Trading Strategies blog.

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

 

 

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Planting Progress?? (4/03)

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

By: Ted Seifried, senior broker at Zaner Group.

Planting Progress??

The USDA released the first weekly Crop Progress report of the year this afternoon (4/03).  Because of the ideal weather in most areas through the bulk of March Traders were looking for corn to be 5-7% planted at this point, compared to 1-2% last year.  The USDA is reporting corn plantings at 3% as compared to 2% last year and 2% 5-year average.  The biggest drag on planting was Texas reporting 48% planted vs 53% last year and 50% 5-year average.  Aside from slower then usual plantings in Texas we did see some states post progress numbers that we would not expect to have started planting this early in the season.  Some standouts being: Illinois at 5%, Indiana at 1%, Missouri at 7%, Michigan at 2%!?! Nebraska at 1%, Ohio at 1% and Tennessee at 15%.

With the USDA reporting planting progress at a much slower pace of 3% compared to the trade expectation of 5-7% we could expect to get a bullish reception to this report.  The trade expectations may have been a bit optimistic however, considering that in many areas crop insurance does not allow planting for another 2-3 weeks.  If the current forecast holds we could be set to see a huge jump in planted acreage in short order. Texas will get planted, and this report reflects the fact that conditions are nearly ideal and we are ready to go.

For my brave friends in Michigan who have started planting corn, please call me as I would love to buy you lunch!  HooRah!

See December Corn Daily chart:

This means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices while we have new crop corn in the $5.50 range. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the strategies that I am currently using.

In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent.

Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs.

Be safe!

Ted Seifried (321) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com

Call Ted Seifried at (312) 277-0113

or e-mail him at tseifried@zaner.com

How to open an account with Zaner Group.

Additional charts, studies, and commentary can be found at Markethead.com.

Subscribe FREE to Zaner Group’s Daily Research Newsletter.

View my thoughts on other markets at Ted Seifried Futures Trading Strategies blog.

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Posted in Commentary, Uncategorized | Comments Off

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Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

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